The Industry Brief

Edition No. 1Covering September 14–21, 2026Published September 22, 2026

Leno's Law, Porsche's Problem and the 78-Mile Volvo

California lets a generation of collector cars off the smog-check hook, Porsche drags Volkswagen into a €6 billion write-down, and Detroit can no longer agree on what a pickup should run on.

By Oliver Bacon · 18 minute read

In this edition

  1. California's Leno's Law opens a smog-check exit for 1976–85 collector cars
  2. Porsche drags Volkswagen into a €6 billion write-down
  3. Volvo's next plug-in hybrids double their electric range
  4. Detroit splits three ways on the pickup
  5. Autonomous trucks leave the demo stage
  6. McLaren confirms its first SUV
  7. Bolt plans 25,000 Lucid robotaxis for Europe
  8. XPeng wants to sell its brains to Western carmakers
  9. Volkswagen's 0.158 prototype argues for smaller batteries

The week's theme was not electric cars replacing gasoline ones. It was carmakers hedging. Volvo built plug-in hybrids that behave like EVs on weekdays, GM doubled down on diesel, Volkswagen showed that the cheapest range is the energy you never need, and the most profitable sports car maker of the last 30 years became its parent company's biggest problem. Every story below carries a status line, because a signed law, a press release and an anonymous tip are not the same kind of news.

Policy · California

Signed into law · takes effect January 1, 2028

California Moves the Line: Leno's Law Opens a Smog-Check Exit for 1976–85 Collector Cars

The exemption is narrow, phased in over six years and aimed at cars that live under covers. For a generation of overlooked classics, it may decide which ones get restored and which ones quietly disappear.

A Mercedes-Benz R107 SL on the California coast
A Mercedes-Benz R107 SL on the California coast. Every R107 sold from 1976 on falls inside the new exemption window. Credit TK.

For five decades, California drew one of the most consequential lines in the collector-car world through the 1975 model year. A 1975 car could be registered without a biennial smog inspection. A nearly identical 1976 car could not. On September 16, standing in Jay Leno's garage, Gov. Gavin Newsom moved the line.

Senate Bill 1392, known as Jay Leno's Law, creates a phased smog-check exemption for qualifying collector vehicles from the 1976 through 1985 model years. Beginning January 1, 2028, eligible cars built before the 1981 model year are exempt. The cutoff then advances one model year each January until pre-1986 cars are covered in 2033. The bill was jointly authored by state Sens. Dave Cortese, a San Jose Democrat, and Shannon Grove, a Bakersfield Republican. Leno said the car community "has been waiting on this for a long time."

Who qualifies

This is not a blanket pass for old cars. A vehicle must be insured as a collector vehicle or driven fewer than 1,000 miles a year. The bill also widens the legal definition of a collector motor vehicle to include cars at least 35 model years old that meet regulations the Bureau of Automotive Repair has yet to write. Where it applies, the exemption covers the smog certificate at initial registration, at biennial renewal and at transfer of ownership. That last one matters: it is where many private sales of these cars stall.

Why the 1975 line mattered

For a modern car, a smog check is an errand. For a low-production car from 1980, it can become archaeology: a model-specific air pump, thermal reactor or vacuum part that left dealer shelves decades ago. A car can run cleanly and still fail the visual inspection because one original component is missing or unidentifiable. That burden bent the market. Buyers passed on appealing cars whose registration looked uncertain, owners sold them out of state, and restorations stalled when the correct emissions hardware cost more than the car.

The cars it touches

The window spans the transition from chrome bumpers to the modern performance car: the Porsche 928 and early 944, the Mercedes-Benz W123, the early W126 and the last W116 450SEL, BMW's E21 and early E30 3 Series, the Jaguar XJ-S, the C4 Corvette, the Fox-body Mustang, the Datsun 280ZX, Toyota's Celica Supra, the first-generation Mazda RX-7 and the first GTI sold in America, the 1983 Rabbit GTI.

The biggest winners may not be the blue-chip cars. A rare Porsche or Ferrari already justifies a difficult compliance bill. The interesting group sits a rung below: a clean XJ-S that needs obsolete emissions plumbing, or a 450SEL worth less than the work required to certify it. For those cars, one regulatory obstacle can decide survival.

What it does not do

The law removes an inspection, not the rules behind it. It does not authorize removing emissions equipment, and nothing changes until 2028. How collector status will be verified, and how modified or engine-swapped cars will be treated, depends on DMV and Bureau of Automotive Repair rules that do not exist yet. Newsom also signed AB 2541, creating a lowrider specialty license plate, and SB 1069, which speeds up state review of aftermarket parts.

The Carveyance take

California spent 50 years treating 1975 as if it were a mechanical dividing line. It never was. It was a legal one. Somewhere under a dusty cover, a 928, an XJ-S, a W126 or an RX-7 just became worth saving.

What to watch: the Bureau of Automotive Repair's collector-vehicle regulations, and whether insurers change their collector-policy requirements once those policies become a path to exemption.

The full storyThe Cars California Just Made Collectible AgainWhich 1976-85 cars gain the most, the rolling exemption California repealed in 2004, and the case against the new law. From the Carveyance archiveAuf Wiedersehen, 928The front-engined Porsche that falls squarely inside the new window.

Industry · Germany

Confirmed · further Porsche job cuts reported, not confirmed

Porsche Drags Volkswagen Into a €6 Billion Write-Down

Volkswagen now expects to earn a margin of 1% at most this year. The sports car maker that once propped up the group has become the largest single weight on it.

The Porsche Museum in Zuffenhausen, next to the plant that builds the 911
The Porsche Museum in Zuffenhausen, next to the plant that builds the 911. Credit TK.

Volkswagen cut its 2026 profit forecast on September 18 after revaluing Porsche. The group now expects an operating margin of no more than 1%, down from previous guidance of 4% to 5.5%, against an analyst consensus of about 4.1%.

The downgrade carries about €10 billion ($11.5 billion) in one-off charges. Roughly €6 billion ($6.9 billion) of that is a non-cash goodwill impairment on Porsche, of which Volkswagen owns 75.4%, reflecting lower long-term assumptions for the business. VW shares closed 5.6% lower that day and kept falling on Monday, September 21, along with Porsche's stock and Porsche SE, VW's largest shareholder, which cut its own outlook.

Why Porsche

The pressures stacked up at once: U.S. tariffs, a collapse in Chinese demand for foreign luxury cars, and the cost of reworking an electrification plan built for demand that did not arrive. Porsche earned a margin of just 1.1% in 2025 and has already thinned its dealer network in China. Across the group, finance chief Arno Antlitz pointed to a 20% contraction in the Chinese market and to EVs that carry thinner margins. "We have no time to lose," he wrote in an internal memo seen by Reuters.

The jobs

The warning landed two weeks after Volkswagen's supervisory board approved its largest restructuring yet, doubling planned group-wide workforce reductions to 100,000 and cutting the model lineup in half. On September 19, the German business daily Handelsblatt reported that documents behind that agreement propose cutting about 4,100 more jobs at Porsche to close an overhead shortfall of about €700 million ($804 million). Those would come on top of roughly 9,000 cuts Porsche and its labor representatives have already agreed, which amount to around one in five jobs by 2035. A Porsche spokesperson declined to comment.

The Carveyance take

For 30 years, Porsche was the part of Volkswagen that paid for the rest. The 996 and the Boxster rescued it, the Cayenne made it rich, and China made it richer. Now the same dependence on SUVs and one overseas market is the problem. The questions ahead are about pricing, how many models Porsche really needs, and how fast it should go electric.

What to watch: Volkswagen's third-quarter results in October, and whether Porsche confirms or disputes the Handelsblatt figure.

From the Carveyance archiveThe Unsung HeroThe water-cooled 911 that saved Porsche the last time it was in trouble.

Launches · Plug-in hybrids

Announced · range figures are Volvo estimates, not EPA ratings

Volvo's Next Plug-In Hybrids Double Their Electric Range

A battery with 37.9 kWh of usable capacity gives the 2028 XC60 an estimated 78 electric miles, the longest of any plug-in hybrid sold in the U.S. It may be the first Volvo PHEV that works the way buyers assumed the last one did.

The Volvo XC60, the company’s best-selling model and the one getting the 78-mile battery
The Volvo XC60, the company’s best-selling model and the one getting the 78-mile battery. Credit TK.

Volvo's 2028 XC60 and XC90 T8 plug-in hybrids more than double their electric range. Volvo estimates 78 miles for the XC60 and 73 for the three-row XC90, up from 35 and 32 miles for the current cars. No plug-in hybrid sold in the U.S. currently goes farther on electricity.

Those current figures are EPA ratings, and owners often do better: Edmunds measured 38.9 miles in an XC60 rated at 35, and Cars.com got close to 50 out of an XC90 rated at 32. The jump is still roughly double, whichever yardstick you use.

The gain comes from the battery. Usable capacity rises from 14.9 kWh to 37.9 kWh, about 1.6 times the gross capacity of the original Nissan Leaf, and the pack sits in the floor, so the XC60 keeps its 16.5 cubic feet of cargo space. A stronger electric motor drives the rear wheels, but combined output stays at 455 hp and 523 lb-ft. Volvo is spending the extra electricity on keeping the gasoline engine off, not on acceleration.

78 miEstimated electric range, XC60 (XC90: 73)
37.9 kWhUsable battery, up from 14.9
5.7 hrEmpty to full on Level 2 charging
590 miTotal range, battery plus gasoline (XC60)
455 hpCombined output, unchanged
2,220 kgAbout 4,900 lb, XC60

Why it matters

Seventy-plus miles covers a long Los Angeles commute, errands and the drive home, with room left over. Volvo says its research found that 60% of its U.S. plug-in hybrid buyers already charge every night; for them, the engine may sleep through most weekdays, while an unplanned run to Las Vegas needs no charging plan at all. The XC60 also adds a warning that stops a rear passenger from opening a door into an approaching cyclist, and a three-dimensional view for the surround camera. In a city, the dooring alert may matter more than the battery.

What Volvo has not answered

The range figures are estimates, and weather, speed and wheel size will decide what owners see. Volvo has not published pricing, an on-sale date or how efficient the car is once the battery is empty, which is when a heavier pack stops helping. A plug-in hybrid that never gets plugged in is a gasoline SUV carrying an expensive passenger.

The Carveyance take

This is the plug-in hybrid finally living up to its sales pitch: an EV for the daily drive, with a gasoline engine waiting in reserve. The real test is not 78 miles in a lab. It is whether the engine feels unnecessary right up until the moment it becomes indispensable.

What to watch: EPA ratings, depleted-battery fuel economy and the window sticker. XC60 production is planned for Torslanda, Sweden, and Charleston, South Carolina.

From the Carveyance archiveNew 2025 Plug-In Hybrid SUVsOur roundup of the field Volvo just leapfrogged.

Trucks · Detroit

Announced · GM and Ram range figures are manufacturer claims

Diesel, Hybrid or Generator? Detroit Splits Three Ways on the Pickup

GM is keeping its diesel and promising more than 900 highway miles per tank. Ford bet on a hybrid. Ram is building a truck that makes its own electricity. For once, the pickup war is about engineering philosophy, not bigger numbers.

A Chevrolet Silverado in the desert
A Chevrolet Silverado. GM is keeping its diesel while Ford bets on a hybrid and Ram builds a truck that makes its own electricity. Credit TK.

General Motors said September 17 that its redesigned 2027 Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra 1500 will keep an upgraded 3.0-liter Duramax diesel, available with an optional 34-gallon (129-liter) tank. At GM's 27-mpg highway figure for two-wheel-drive diesel trucks, that works out to a theoretical 918 highway miles; GM claims "more than 900." Two new V-8s join the lineup, and crew-cab production begins in October at Fort Wayne, Indiana, and Silao, Mexico.

The Silverado and Sierra are GM's best-selling vehicles worldwide and produce the bulk of its profit, so this is not a side bet. GM President Mark Reuss argued that the diesel is a simpler route to efficiency than "adding a hybrid system to an existing powertrain." Ford dropped its light-duty F-150 diesel in favor of the PowerBoost hybrid. Ram is developing an extended-range truck that uses a gasoline engine as an onboard generator and says it will cover 690 miles between stops.

Three answers to the same question
GM Silverado / SierraFord F-150Ram (in development)
Efficiency play3.0-liter turbodieselConventional hybridExtended-range electric
Claimed range900+ highway miles (34-gal. tank)Not the pitch690 miles between stops
Combined mpg, 4WD24 (current diesel)23 (current hybrid)Not yet rated
Plugs in?NoNoYes
Built forLong highway runs, heavy towing, remote areasMixed driving, jobsite power without plugging inHome charging during the week, long tows on gasoline
CatchDiesel usually costs more per gallon; emissions hardwareAdvantage narrows when towing at speedCarries nearly every part of an EV and a gas truck

Why it matters

GM's current four-wheel-drive diesel trucks carry a 24-mpg combined federal rating, one better than Ford's four-wheel-drive hybrid, but diesel's higher pump price can erase the difference in running costs. Ford's hybrid asks nothing of the owner and turns the truck into a generator for tools or a campsite through its Pro Power Onboard system. Ram's approach attacks towing's worst problem with EVs: most public chargers are laid out like parking stalls, which means unhitching the trailer to plug in. Each truck wins for a different owner, and each loses badly in the wrong hands. A diesel that only does short town trips never plays to its strengths, and a plug-in truck that never gets charged is just a very heavy gasoline truck.

The Carveyance take

This is about which company has correctly predicted how Americans will use energy, and the only fair test is the same route for all three: city errands, a long freeway run, mountain grades and a real trailer, measuring fuel, electricity and time spent refueling. We would like to run it.

What to watch: final EPA figures, payload and towing ratings for the long-range tank, and a production date for Ram's extended-range truck.

Read nextDiesel’s Lost AdvantageDiesel still holds more energy per gallon and burns it more efficiently, so why does it cost a dollar more than gasoline?

Autonomy · Freight

Announced · no approval yet for driverless public-road service in Europe

Autonomous Trucks Leave the Demo Stage

Pony.ai showed a production-bound Level 4 electric truck in Hanover, and Nvidia signed on to power Einride's freight network. The first self-driving vehicle the public learns to trust may not be a car at all.

The Pony
The Pony.ai and GAC T9 robotruck at IAA Transportation in Hanover, wearing a “Pony Inside” badge where a radiator would be. Credit TK.

At the IAA Transportation show on September 14, Chinese self-driving company Pony.ai unveiled a Level 4 autonomous heavy truck built with GAC Commercial Vehicle on its T9 battery-electric platform. Volume production is scheduled for later this year, for long-haul freight, fixed-route logistics and ports. Level 4 means the truck can drive itself without a human inside defined areas and conditions.

Pony.ai already runs a couple of hundred Level 4 trucks on routes in China, some fully driverless and others with safety drivers. It says it has approached several European ports and governments about road tests and plans to enter Europe and the Middle East within two years. Only a handful of European countries currently have rules that allow self-driving tests at all.

A week later, on September 21, Swedish freight operator Einride announced that it will build the next generation of its autonomous driving system on Nvidia's Drive Hyperion platform. Einride keeps responsibility for the driving system, safety validation and regulatory approvals; Nvidia supplies the computing hardware and AI development tools. Einride says it runs hundreds of electric trucks for shippers in the U.S., Europe and the Middle East, including some autonomous trucks under customer contracts, and expects that fleet to grow to 1,500–2,000 vehicles by 2028. It estimates that about 80% of the demand it has captured could eventually be automated.

Why it matters

Freight may reach meaningful autonomy before private cars do, for a simple reason: trucks can run depot to depot, inside ports or along fixed freight corridors, which are far narrower problems than everything a family car encounters. The economics help too. A truck earns money every hour it moves, and European operators face high labor costs and driver shortages. But production plans, customer demand and chip partnerships are not permission to run without a driver on public roads, and Europe's rules remain fragmented country by country.

The Carveyance take

Notice the shape of the trucks. Pony.ai's T9 is a flat-fronted cab-over, and Einride's autonomous trucks have no cab at all. The robot inherits the European argument about what a truck's face should look like, and then deletes the face.

What to watch: the first European approval for Pony.ai road testing, and whether Einride's autonomous count moves from single digits before 2028.

From the Carveyance archiveFreightliner OptimusAmerican long-nose or European cab-over? Our comparison of two trucks built for the same job with two very different faces.

Also This Week

Four more stories worth knowing, in brief.

Launches · United Kingdom

Confirmed · launch before 2030, no name yet

McLaren Confirms Its First SUV

The McLaren W1
The McLaren W1. The SUV will be the first front-engined car McLaren has built, and the first with an engine of its own design. Credit TK.

McLaren confirmed on September 16 that it will build a performance SUV in Britain before 2030, funded by a £500 million (about $670 million) investment from its owner, the Abu Dhabi sovereign investor L'IMAD. The money also pays for a second UK assembly plant at an undisclosed site, larger facilities in Woking and South Yorkshire, and, for the first time, engines and transmissions designed and built in-house. McLaren expects at least 1,000 new jobs by 2032, plus up to 3,000 in its supply chain.

It will be the first front-engined McLaren, aimed at the Lamborghini Urus, Aston Martin DBX and Bentley Bentayga. There is no electric version planned. "[Customers] are not asking us, and we're not doing one," CEO Nick Collins said. Woking built around 2,000 cars in 2025.

Why it matters: Porsche launched the Cayenne from a position of strength. McLaren is building its SUV as part of a recovery under new ownership. The question is whether it can make a family vehicle that feels unmistakably McLaren.

Autonomy · Europe

Agreement · no order value, no deployment date

Bolt Plans 25,000 Lucid Robotaxis for Europe

Lucid’s Lunar robotaxi concept, built on the Midsize platform that Bolt’s 25,000 cars depend on
Lucid’s Lunar robotaxi concept, built on the Midsize platform that Bolt’s 25,000 cars depend on. Credit TK.

European ride-hailing company Bolt said on September 17 that it aims to deploy at least 25,000 Level 4 autonomous vehicles built on Lucid's upcoming Midsize platform in European cities. Bolt will own and operate the fleet, part of a goal of 100,000 autonomous vehicles by 2035. The cars are expected to use Nvidia's Hyperion architecture, which supplies computing power and sensors; the self-driving software partner has not been named.

No deal value or launch date was given, and the platform itself is late: Lucid delayed its Midsize program in August. Lucid has a separate U.S. agreement under which Uber plans to deploy at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles running Nuro's software.

Why it matters: Lucid is known for fast, efficient luxury sedans. Its most valuable product may turn out to be the platform under a car nobody drives.

From the Carveyance archiveThe Meter, the App & the MachineHow the taxi lost the curb, and who takes it next.

Technology · China

Reported · two unnamed sources

XPeng Wants to Sell Its Brains to Western Carmakers

The Volkswagen ID
The Volkswagen ID.UNYX 08, the first model co-developed with XPeng, which carries its cockpit software and Turing chips. Credit TK.

XPeng plans to offer its electronic architecture, cockpit systems, Turing AI chips and driver-assistance software to foreign automakers beyond its partner Volkswagen, Reuters reported on September 17, citing two people familiar with the matter. Software developers and parts suppliers could also be customers.

The Volkswagen deal shows why. The first jointly developed model, the ID.UNYX 08 electric SUV, entered mass production in March 2026, 24 months after the partnership began. XPeng's revenue from services and other businesses nearly doubled in the second quarter, at a 75.1% margin, against 12.1% on the cars it sells.

Why it matters: the next wave of Chinese influence may be invisible. A car can keep its European badge, design studio and dealers while thinking with Chinese electronics underneath.

Engineering · Prototype

Research prototype · not for sale

Volkswagen's 0.158 Prototype Argues for Smaller Batteries

Volkswagen’s Mission Efficiency prototype: a teardrop body with a drag coefficient of 0
Volkswagen’s Mission Efficiency prototype: a teardrop body with a drag coefficient of 0.158. Credit TK.

Volkswagen's Mission Efficiency prototype, shown September 14, uses production-derived ID. Polo hardware and a 54.9-kWh usable battery in a four-seat teardrop body with a drag coefficient of 0.158, which VW calls a record for a road-approved car. It drove 794 miles (1,278 km) from Wolfsburg to Vienna on one charging stop, averaging 6.89 kWh per 100 km.

The caveats matter: VW raised the usable battery from 52.0 kWh through a software change for the record, and the trip averaged just 42 mph (68 km/h). Above 50 mph (80 km/h), VW says it uses more than 30% less energy than an ID. Polo.

Why it matters: the industry answers range anxiety with bigger batteries, which add cost, weight and charging time. This is the other answer: need less energy in the first place. It edges VW's own 2002 1-liter concept car, measured at 0.159.

News Versus Noise

How solid is each story? Our ledger for the week.

Confirmed
Leno's Law. Volkswagen's forecast cut and Porsche write-down. Volvo's long-range plug-in hybrids. GM's diesel plan. McLaren's SUV. Pony.ai's robotruck. Einride's Nvidia partnership.
Reported, not confirmed
About 4,100 further Porsche job cuts (Handelsblatt; Porsche declined to comment). XPeng's wider technology licensing (unnamed sources).
Plans without dates
Bolt's 25,000 Lucid robotaxis. Ram's 690-mile truck. Einride's 1,500–2,000-vehicle fleet by 2028.
Not news yet
Renderings of the McLaren SUV. It has no name, confirmed powertrain or platform, so any image of it is speculation.

The Industry Brief publishes every Monday.

Sources

Leno's Law

Volkswagen and Porsche

Volvo

Pickups

Autonomous trucks

Also this week

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